Saturday, January 28, 2006

Planning for the Next Oil Crisis

Fortune Magazine reports about a session at the Davos World Economic Forum on scenarios for possible oil crises in the near future. Bill Browder of Hermitage Capital and George Soros led the session. Soros was particulalry concerned that U.S. over-reach in Iraq would further embolden countries such as Iran that want to overturn the current order. While the hegemon's away, the rogues will play.

Browder, for his part, set out a series of scenarios:

To come up with some likely scenarios in the event of an international crisis, [Browder’s] team performed what's known as a regression analysis, extrapolating the numbers from past oil shocks and then using them to calculate what might happen when the supply from an oil-producing country was cut off in six different situations. The fall of the House of Saud seems the most far-fetched of the six possibilities, and it's the one that generates that $262 a barrel.

More realistic -- and therefore more chilling -- would be the scenario where Iran declares an oil embargo a la OPEC in 1973, which Browder thinks could cause oil to double to $131 a barrel. Other outcomes include an embargo by Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez ($111 a barrel), civil war in Nigeria ($98 a barrel), unrest and violence in Algeria ($79 a barrel) and major attacks on infrastructure by the insurgency in Iraq ($88 a barrel).

Regressions analysis may be mathematical but it's an art, not a science. And some of these scenarios are quite dubious, like Venezuela shutting the spigot.

Although all admit that none of these scenarios is especially likely, it is important to nonetheless plan in case any of these events occur. Unfortunately, forward planning has not proven to be one of the current administration’s strong points.


Blogger mucheng said...

blu ray ripper
blu ray ripper
blu ray to avi
blu ray to wmv
blu ray to mp4
Furthermore, Blu ray Ripper has powerful editing functions like Trim and Crop Blu ray clips, add text/image Watermark as a logo, set video Effect like brightness, contrast, saturation, etc.

7/06/2010 3:27 AM  
Blogger Nike shox shoes said...

Whether 60 of 16, there is in every human being's heart the lure of wonder, a unfailing childlike appetite of the what's next and a joy of the game of living

Nike shox shoes can surely not let you down,romance yourself with nike shox

10/25/2010 10:11 PM  
Blogger xinag zhong said...

Whether 60 Cheapest Diablo 3 goldregarding Of sixteen, there's atlanta divorce attorneys human being being's cardiovascular system the attraction connected with question, a new unfailing childlike desire for foods in Cheap wow gold the what is future and also a happiness on the game of dwelling

7/28/2012 1:53 AM  
Blogger Meredith Andrews said...

It was the night before the day fixed for his coronation, and the young King was sitting alone in his beautiful chamber. His courtiers had all dragon nest gold taken their leave of him, bowing their heads to the ground, according to the ceremonious usage of the day, and had dragonnest gold retired to the Great Hall of the Palace, to receive a few last lessons from the Professor of Etiquette; there being some of them who dn gold had still quite natural manners, which in a courtier is, I need hardly say, a very grave offence.      The lad - for he was only a lad, being but sixteen years of age - was not sorry at their departure, and had flung himself back with a deep sigh of relief on the soft cushions of his embroidered couch, lying there, wild-eyed and open-mouthed, like a brown woodland Faun, or some young animal of the forest newly snared by the hunters. 

8/08/2013 4:50 AM  
Blogger Meredith Andrews said...

A summary of the physical and chemical nature of life must begin, not on the Earth, but in the Sun; in fact, at the Sun's very center. It is here that is to Ever Quset2 plat be found the source of the energy that the Sun constantly pours out into space as light and heat. This energy is librated at the center Ever Quset2 Gold of the Sun as billions upon billions of nuclei of hydrogen atoms collide with each other and fuse together to form nuclei of helium, and in doing so, release some of the energy that is stored in the nuclei of atoms. The output of light and heat of the Sun requires that some 600 million tons of hydrogen be eq2 platinum converted into helium in the Sun every second. This the Sun has been doing for several thousands of millions of year.

8/08/2013 4:55 AM  

Post a Comment

<< Home